RESEARCH PROPOSAL ON THE IMPACTS OF COVID-19 ON TOURISM IN EASTERN AFRICA

RESEARCH PROPOSALON THE IMPACTS OF COVID-19 ON TOURISM IN EASTERN AFRICA, THEMEASURES TAKEN AND THE RECOVERY PATHWAYSAPRIL, 202011.0 CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION1.1 Background to the Study The COVID-19 outbreak has brought our world to a standstill with unparalleled and unforeseenimpact in all aspects ranging from our lives, economies, societies and our livelihoods and thuscreating a growing risk of a global recession coupled by massive loss of jobs. (UNWTO, 2020)Based on the latest developments (quarantine measures, travel bans & border closures in most of Europe, which represents 50% of international tourism, and in many countries of the Americas,Africa and the Middle East), the evolutions in Asia and the Pacific and the patterns of previouscrises (2003 SARS and 2009 global economic crisis), UNWTO estimates international touristarrivals could decline by 20% to 30% in 2020 translating into a loss of 300 to 450 US$ billion ininternational tourism receipts (exports). Globally, the tourism sector is currently one of the hardest-hit by the COVID-19 outbreak, withimpacts on both travel supply and demand, particularly in China, the world’s leading outboundmarket in spending, and other key Asian and European destinations such as Italy. In Africa, 51 countries have so far confirmed COVID-19 cases with Southern Sudan being thelatest entry (Africa CDC) and tourism has particularly experienced major shock resulting fromtravel bans and cancellations from major source markets as well as regional travel ban. It isworth noting that some African economies depend heavily on tourism and among the top 10reflecting tourism share of GDP (%) in that category, 3 are from Eastern Africa (Rwanda-14%,Madagascar-16% and Seychelles-67%) (UNECA). In Eastern Africa, the contribution of tourismto the economies varies across countries, and thus COVID-19 is expected to have differenteffects via the tourism sector. Eastern Africa is one of the fastest growing regions in the world with countries like Rwanda,Ethiopia, and Tanzania having average growth rates of 8.5%, 7.9% and 7.0 respectively(UNECA, 2019). However, despite these high levels of growth, severe economic vulnerabilitiesstill remain in Eastern Africa as a whole as lack of jobs and reduced trade performance witnessedin recent years as well as demographic pressures being evidenced by annual increase in working2age population posing a situation where these economies need to create an aggregate of 7 millionnew jobs which is not forthcoming since job creation has not kept pace with the economicexpansion. (UNdata & ILO). Consequently, its noted that Intra-regional trade has stoppedgrowing and stagnated in the past decade in Eastern Africa (UNCTADstat). With the onset of COVID-19, a whole new level of vulnerabilities has been introduced in Africaand Eastern Africa in particular with economic effects being felt mainly in the services sector(Tourism and Hospitality) especially due to the slow-down or complete halt of economicactivities due to preventative and restrictive measures resulting to loss of regional airlines, loss of public revenues and households’ income due to closure of tourism related activities (UNECA).Although Eastern Africa states have independently spelt out various measures to deal withpandemic impacts within their borders, ranging from lockdowns to border close-downs, it maynot be sustainable in the long run although may give a sigh of relief at the present.As it stands today, the whole of the tourism value chain is undoubtedly experiencing the impactof the COVID-19 outbreak with small and medium enterprises expected to be particularlyaffected. As a result, it is thus more of a necessity to devise innovative and sustainable meanstowards the support and recovery measures for the tourism sector in Eastern Africa, warrantingthe need for this study.1.2 Problem Statement and JustificationAccording to World Health Organization (WHO, 2019), the first case of Corona virus (Covid-19)in Wuhan, was detected in a patient in Wuhan, Jinyintan Hospital in China on 30th December,2019. Currently, more than 73,000 people have died from COVID-19 while over 1.3 millionhave been confirmed in at least 183 countries and territories with over 277,000 recoveriesglobally from the coronavirus. Although COVID-19 impacts are experienced in all sectors of the economy, The tourism sectorparticularly is and will possibly continue to be greatly affected as a result of mega Travelrestrictions and flight cancellations thus significantly diminishing the supply of travel services(both domestic and international) while retracting the tourism demand.3The tourism industry has been greatly affected by the crisis and many hotels have been closeddown and employees sent home. The travel sector has also borne the brunt of the crisis with mosttravel agencies closing down. In Eastern Africa, Most countries heavily depend on tourism fortheir economic growth with Rwanda, Madagascar and Seychelles top in the list. Consequently,with stagnation of Intra-regional trade in the past decades in Eastern Africa, the onset of COVID-19 may worsen the already hurt trade state and thus worsening the current state. Considering the evolving nature of the current COVID-19 situation in Eastern Africa and theAfrica in general, it is not easy to theoretically estimate the full impact of the COVID-19 ontourism Industry especially due to the newness of the current scenario and worldwide lock downunlike during the SARS scenario. Currently the effect of the crisis in Eastern Africa states isdevastating to the economy heavily dependent on Tourism and thus calling for urgent measures.Although tourism generally has been witnessed to continually expand despite occasional shocksresulting from terrorism as well as disease outbreaks and thus demonstrating its strength andresilience, the current COVID-19 crisis calls for a complete different and innovative approach aswell as drastic measures if we are to be ready to revert back strongly as an industry when all thiscrisis is over. 1.3 Purpose of the studyTo determine the impacts of and the measures taken and the recovery pathways on tourismindustry in Eastern Africa states1.4 Specific Objectives a) To profile the impacts of covid-19 in tourism industry in Eastern Africab) To examine measures taken to deal with covid-19 in tourism industry in Eastern Africac) To propose the recovery pathways in dealing with covid-19 in tourism industry in EasternAfricad) To recommend best practices in managing Covid-19 as a crisis in tourism industry inEastern Africa1.5 Research Questionsa) Which are impacts of covid-19 in tourism industry in Eastern Africa?4b) What measures has been taken to deal with covid-19 in tourism industry in EasternAfrica?c) Which are the proposed recovery pathways in dealing with covid-19 in tourism industryin Eastern Africa?d) What are best practices in managing Coved -19 as a crisis in tourism industry in EasternAfrica?1.6 Significance of the Study The study will be significant in that it will help the Eastern Africa states to understand thebest practices they can put in place in managing current COVID-19 crisis and any similarcrisis in the future It will also enlighten all key tourism industry players on possible recovery pathways theycould adopt in dealing with such major pandemics in the future.1.7 Delimitations/ Scope of the study The study will focus on COVID-19 impacts on tourism industry in Eastern Africa states in 2020. 1.8 Limitation of the StudyThe study will be limited by the unpredictable evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic howeverwe will keep updating ourselves with updates as they come.